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The improving Rebels are gunning for their maiden home win of the season this weekend, hosting a Reds outfit that needs to start chalking up wins if the franchise is to be any chance of reaching the finals.
Veteran prop Laurie Weeks has been ruled out for up to two months with a knee injury in a huge blow for the Rebels, while Dom Shipperley is still 3-5 weeks away. After a clutch of key players returned last week, the Reds are set to welcome back flanker Liam Gill from a dangerous tackle ban and multi-code convert Karmichael Hunt from suspension.
The Reds have won seven of their eight clashes with the Rebels, with the Rebels’ sole victory a 30-27 upset in Brisbane last year. The Reds won the return clash in Melbourne 36-20 six weeks later. The Reds have prevailed on all four of their visits to AAMI Park.
The Rebels have lost their last two matches – against the visiting Lions and away to the Hurricanes –after leading both at halftime. Holding a 12-10 advantage at the break in Wellington through the boot of Mike Harris, the Rebels were overrun in the second half to go down 36-12. The Reds were also run down by the Lions, coughing up an 8-3 halftime lead before succumbing 18-17 last weekend – the struggling Queenslanders’ fourth loss in succession.
Experienced halfback Will Genia has been one of the most consistent players in a battling Reds outfit, and one of the players most capable of pulling them out of their rut. This week he goes head-to-head with promising young Rebels scrum-feeder Nic Stirzaker, who is enjoying a breakout season – his first as the team’s regular starting No.9.
Six of the teams’ eight matches have produced 49 points or more, while five of the Reds’ seven wins were by 13+ margins. The Rebels are on a seven-match losing streak at home (after winning six of their previous seven at AAMI Park in late-2013 and early-2014). The Reds have won just one of their last 10 on the road – including five 13+ defeats. Home favourites are 13-21 against the start in 2015. Overs has prevailed in the Match Total stakes just 16 times in 47 games to date (but four times in Round 7) while only nine teams have been behind at halftime and won in 2015 – three of those occurring in Round 6.
Don’t be surprised if this is the week the Reds get their campaign back on track. While there’s been little to smile about to date, the influx of superstars from the injury ward and suspension list back into the team over the last few weeks is destined to bear fruit soon. The Reds have been easily the worst attacking side in the Super XV – averaging a pitiful 9.33 points per game – and their Wallaby-laden backline will be looking to cut loose. The absence of front-row stalwart Weeks should not be underestimated for the home side, whose depth is finally being tested after a charmed injury run to date. The Rebels go is as $1.66 favourites – the Reds are outstanding value as $2.25 outsiders, while they are $1.91 with a 3-point start. Stick with the unders and 1-12 margins for both sides.